{"title":"Factors influencing spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma and the construction of a predictive model","authors":"Xia Feng, Fangxiang Zhu, Anhua Qiao, Wenfang Li, Ying Jiang, Zengtao Han, Lan Dong","doi":"10.1515/biol-2022-0862","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study aimed to investigate spontaneous hypothermia among emergency trauma patients and develop a predictive model. A cohort of 162 emergency trauma patients was categorized into hypothermic (<jats:italic>n</jats:italic> = 61) and control (<jats:italic>n</jats:italic> = 101) groups, with trauma severity assessed using the modified Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). Univariate analysis revealed significant differences between the groups in trauma severity, posture, garment wetness, warming measures, pre-hospital fluid resuscitation, and modified GCS scores (<jats:italic>P</jats:italic> < 0.05). The hypothermic group exhibited lower prothrombin time compared to the control group (<jats:italic>P</jats:italic> < 0.05). A logistic regression model was constructed, expressed as <jats:italic>Y</jats:italic> = 25.76 − 1.030<jats:italic>X</jats:italic> <jats:sub>1</jats:sub> + 0.725<jats:italic>X</jats:italic> <jats:sub>2</jats:sub> + 0.922<jats:italic>X</jats:italic> <jats:sub>3</jats:sub> − 0.750<jats:italic>X</jats:italic> <jats:sub>4</jats:sub> − 0.57<jats:italic>X</jats:italic> <jats:sub>6</jats:sub>, and its fit was evaluated using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.871, with 81.2% sensitivity and 79.5% specificity. The Youden index identified the optimal predictive cut-off at its highest (0.58). Validation results included 86.21% sensitivity, 82.93% specificity, and 84.29% accuracy. Risk factors for spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma encompassed trauma severity, posture during consultation, clothing dampness upon admission, warming measures during transfer, pre-hospital fluid resuscitation, and modified GCS scores. The risk prediction model demonstrated high accuracy, enabling effective assessment of spontaneous hypothermia risk in emergency trauma patients and facilitating preventive measures.","PeriodicalId":19605,"journal":{"name":"Open Life Sciences","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Open Life Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1515/biol-2022-0862","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study aimed to investigate spontaneous hypothermia among emergency trauma patients and develop a predictive model. A cohort of 162 emergency trauma patients was categorized into hypothermic (n = 61) and control (n = 101) groups, with trauma severity assessed using the modified Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). Univariate analysis revealed significant differences between the groups in trauma severity, posture, garment wetness, warming measures, pre-hospital fluid resuscitation, and modified GCS scores (P < 0.05). The hypothermic group exhibited lower prothrombin time compared to the control group (P < 0.05). A logistic regression model was constructed, expressed as Y = 25.76 − 1.030X1 + 0.725X2 + 0.922X3 − 0.750X4 − 0.57X6, and its fit was evaluated using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. The receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.871, with 81.2% sensitivity and 79.5% specificity. The Youden index identified the optimal predictive cut-off at its highest (0.58). Validation results included 86.21% sensitivity, 82.93% specificity, and 84.29% accuracy. Risk factors for spontaneous hypothermia after emergency trauma encompassed trauma severity, posture during consultation, clothing dampness upon admission, warming measures during transfer, pre-hospital fluid resuscitation, and modified GCS scores. The risk prediction model demonstrated high accuracy, enabling effective assessment of spontaneous hypothermia risk in emergency trauma patients and facilitating preventive measures.
期刊介绍:
Open Life Sciences (previously Central European Journal of Biology) is a fast growing peer-reviewed journal, devoted to scholarly research in all areas of life sciences, such as molecular biology, plant science, biotechnology, cell biology, biochemistry, biophysics, microbiology and virology, ecology, differentiation and development, genetics and many others. Open Life Sciences assures top quality of published data through critical peer review and editorial involvement throughout the whole publication process. Thanks to the Open Access model of publishing, it also offers unrestricted access to published articles for all users.