What happens if we ‘burn all the carbon’? carbon reserves, carbon budgets, and policy options for governments†

Abstract

Our estimates show that ‘proven reserves’ of fossil fuels in 2022, would generate an estimated 4777 Gt of CO₂ after allowing for non-fuel uses. This quantity already could ‘bust CO₂ budgets’ for IPCC RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP6.0 and is approaching the range for RCP8.5. Notwithstanding these results, fossil fuel companies are still exploring and bringing new reserves onstream. We discuss the reasons behind this, and propose some policy options for governments as they address this situation.