Gaussian process-based analysis of the nitrogen dioxide at Madrid Central Low Emission Zone

Abstract

Concern about air-quality in urban areas has led to the implementation of Low Emission Zones as one of many other initiatives to control it. Recently in Spain, the enactment of a law made this mandatory for cities with a population larger than 50k inhabitants. The delimitation of these areas is not without controversy because of possible negative economic and social impacts. Therefore, clear assessments of how these initiatives decrease pollutant concentrations are to be provided. Madrid Central is a major initiative of Madrid city council for reducing motor traffic and the associated air pollution in the city centre. This Low Emission Zone starts at the end of 2018, but the first fully-operational period corresponds to the second quarter of 2019. In this work, a methodology based on the Gaussian Process to analyse the evolution of Nitrogen Dioxide inside Madrid Central is undertaken. A Gaussian Process is a stochastic process suitable for interpretable model selection and predictions. Due to its probabilistic nature it provides error estimation at predictions. After the activation of Madrid Central, a relevant reduction of Nitrogen Dioxide has been observed. However, the role of the meteorology during this period must be ascertained to correctly evaluate the role of the activation of the Low Emission Zone against a prone weather. In this work, a model based on the Gaussian Process is trained with meteorological information to predict the concentration of Nitrogen Dioxide at Madrid Central, $[NO_{2}]$. This probabilistic description allows extracting statistical information on the reduction affected by the meteorological scenario and separately by the Madrid Central activation.