The global financial cycle and capital flows: Taking stock

Abstract

Since the global financial crisis, a rich and expanding literature on the so-called global financial cycle (GFCy) has emerged. This has fueled a debate in academic and policy circles on how to measure the GFCy, and how it impacts international capital flows, possibly in a time-varying way. We review the literature that has shown the relevance of the GFCy, as well as the heterogeneity of its impact on capital flows and its variations over time. We assess how various indicators of the GFCy affect episodes of large capital flows, and find a robust effect especially on episodes driven by non-resident investors. Non-linearity and instability over time, notably a less strong impact after the global financial crisis, are found at least for some GFCy indicators.