Herding the crowds: how sentiment affects crowdsourced earnings estimates

IF 1.5 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE
John Garcia
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of firm-level investor sentiment derived from Twitter and news media on herding behavior among contributors on Estimize, a leading platform for crowdsourced earnings forecasts. The findings show that sentiment gleaned from tweets and news media content positively influences herding among Estimize contributors. Notably, herding intensifies when Twitter and news sentiment polarities align, while divergent sentiment polarities diminish this herding effect. Additionally, the analysis indicates that firms with investment-grade ratings and those characterized by low valuation uncertainty are particularly prone to sentiment-driven herding. Importantly, positive sentiment is identified as having a more potent influence on herding behavior than negative sentiment. By focusing on Estimize contributors, this study offers insights into how firm-level sentiment cues shape the crowd’s herding behavior, offering new perspectives on how different media sources shape the wisdom of the crowd.

从众:情绪如何影响众包盈利预测
本研究调查了从推特和新闻媒体中获取的公司层面投资者情绪对 Estimize(一个领先的众包盈利预测平台)贡献者羊群行为的影响。研究结果表明,从推特和新闻媒体内容中收集的情绪对 Estimize 贡献者的羊群行为有积极影响。值得注意的是,当推特和新闻的情绪两极一致时,羊群行为会加剧,而情绪两极分化则会削弱这种羊群效应。此外,分析表明,获得投资级评级的公司和估值不确定性低的公司特别容易受到情绪驱动的羊群效应的影响。重要的是,积极情绪比消极情绪对羊群行为的影响更大。通过关注 Estimize 的贡献者,本研究深入探讨了公司层面的情绪线索是如何形成羊群行为的,为不同媒体来源如何形成群众智慧提供了新的视角。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
21
期刊介绍: The journal Financial Markets and Portfolio Management invites submissions of original research articles in all areas of finance, especially in – but not limited to – financial markets, portfolio choice and wealth management, asset pricing, risk management, and regulation. Its principal objective is to publish high-quality articles of innovative research and practical application. The readers of Financial Markets and Portfolio Management are academics and professionals in finance and economics, especially in the areas of asset management. FMPM publishes academic and applied research articles, shorter ''Perspectives'' and survey articles on current topics of interest to the financial community, as well as book reviews. All article submissions are subject to a double-blind peer review. http://www.fmpm.org Officially cited as: Financ Mark Portf Manag
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