The US-China Rivalry in the Middle East: Confrontation or Competitive Coexistence

Abstract

A new era of great power rivalry has returned to the center of the global stage. The Middle East has emerged as one of the key arenas where this rivalry is being played out, and analyzing it through the lens of power transition theory provides valuable insights into the dynamics at play. This study focuses on the great power rivalry between the United States and China in the Middle East through the lens of power transition theory. It examines whether this great power rivalry in the region will allow them to pursue competitive coexistence or if they can expect increasing levels of confrontation and mutual deterrence. The study maintains that the US-China rivalry in the Middle East is multidimensional and spans primarily three dimensions: geo-economic (the Belt and Road Initiative framework), geopolitical (partnership diplomacy), and the race for technological supremacy (the Digital Silk Road). While conflict is not inevitable, it is essential to recognize the potential for confrontation and build a coordinated mechanism to manage and mitigate these tensions.