An options-pricing approach to forecasting the French presidential election

IF 2.7 4区管理学 Q2 MANAGEMENT

Journal of the Operational Research Society Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI:10.1080/01605682.2024.2334339

John Fry, Thomas Hastings, Jane Binner

引用次数: 0

Abstract

A subjective probability argument suggests vote-share estimates from polling companies can be interpreted as market prices. The corresponding election constitutes the price at a known future date. ...

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预测法国总统大选的期权定价方法

主观概率论证表明，民调公司的得票率估计值可被解释为市场价格。相应的选举构成了已知未来日期的价格。...

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来源期刊

Journal of the Operational Research Society 管理科学-运筹学与管理科学

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

13.90%

发文量

144

审稿时长

7.3 months

期刊介绍： JORS is an official journal of the Operational Research Society and publishes original research papers which cover the theory, practice, history or methodology of OR.