Anthropogenic changes of interannual-to-decadal climate variability in CMIP6 multi-ensemble simulations

IF 4.8 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Arthur Coquereau, Florian Sévellec, Thierry Huck, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Antoine Hochet
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Abstract

Abstract As well as having an impact on the background state of the climate, global warming due to human activities could affect its natural oscillations and internal variability. In this study, we use four initial-condition ensembles from the CMIP6 framework to investigate the potential evolution of internal climate variability under different warming pathways for the 21st century. Our results suggest significant changes in natural climate variability, and point to two distinct regimes driving these changes. First, a decrease of internal variability of surface air temperature at high latitudes and all frequencies, associated with a poleward shift and the gradual disappearance of sea-ice edges, which we show to be an important component of internal variability. Second, an intensification of the interannual variability of surface air temperature and precipitation at low latitudes, which appears to be associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This second regime is particularly alarming because it may contribute to making the climate more unstable and less predictable, with a significant impact on human societies and ecosystems.
CMIP6 多集合模拟中年际至十年期气候变异性的人为变化
摘要 人类活动导致的全球变暖不仅会影响气候的背景状态,还会影响气候的自然振荡和内部变率。在本研究中,我们利用 CMIP6 框架中的四个初始条件集合来研究 21 世纪不同变暖途径下气候内部变率的潜在演变。我们的研究结果表明,自然气候变率发生了重大变化,并指出了驱动这些变化的两种不同机制。首先,高纬度和所有频率的地表气温内部变率下降,这与极地移动和海冰边缘逐渐消失有关,我们表明海冰边缘是内部变率的重要组成部分。其次,低纬度地表气温和降水的年际变化加剧,这似乎与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)有关。第二种机制尤其令人担忧,因为它可能使气候变得更加不稳定,更难预测,对人类社会和生态系统产生重大影响。
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来源期刊
Journal of Climate
Journal of Climate 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
9.30
自引率
14.30%
发文量
490
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Climate (JCLI) (ISSN: 0894-8755; eISSN: 1520-0442) publishes research that advances basic understanding of the dynamics and physics of the climate system on large spatial scales, including variability of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and cryosphere; past, present, and projected future changes in the climate system; and climate simulation and prediction.
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