How Brazil’s, Mexico’s and Argentina’s economies coped with the Covid-19 pandemic

Abstract

This paper assesses how Brazil’s, Mexico’s and Argentina’s economies coped with the Covid-19 pandemic by generating two series of Q3 2022 to Q4 2050 Real GDP growth rate forecasts with wavelet analysis: 1) using data including the pandemic from Q4 1995 to Q1 2022 for Brazil, from Q4 1995 to Q2 2022 for Mexico and from Q1 2004 to Q1 2022 for Argentina) and 2) using data not including the pandemic from Q4 1995 to Q3 2019 for Brazil, from Q4 1995 to Q3 2019 for Mexico, from Q1 2004 to Q3 2019 for Argentina. The difference in forecast averages is an indicator of the resilience of the economy during the pandemic, the greater the difference, the better the resilience. Argentina’s economy shows a better resilience (+3.24%) than Mexico (+2.18%) and Brazil’s (-2.25%).