Socio-Economic Predictors of Migration Intentions: Systematic Analysis

E. Zabelina, Ekaterina V. Nikolaeva, A.A. Ivanova, Danila Valko
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Abstract

Population migration to other cities and countries can significantly impact demographics and fiscal policy, subsequently leading to the weakening of the economy in sending regions. Despite numerous studies demonstrating the significant influence of social and economic factors on the formation of migration intentions, new data in this field continues to emerge, which has not yet been systematically organized. This study aims to systematize and detail the socio-economic predictors of migration intentions through a theoretical review of research, including the latest works. Based on the analyzed literature, five categories of socio-economic predictors of migration intentions were identified: demographic, economic, socio-psychological, political, and cultural. This research contributes to a more detailed understanding of socio-economic predictors of migration intentions, enabling more precise decision-making in the development of government policies aimed at managing migration flows.
移民意向的社会经济预测因素:系统分析
向其他城市和国家的人口迁移会对人口统计和财政政策产生重大影响,进而导致迁出地区的经济疲软。尽管大量研究表明,社会和经济因素对移民意向的形成具有重大影响,但这一领域的新数据仍在不断涌现,而且尚未得到系统整理。本研究旨在通过对包括最新著作在内的相关研究进行理论回顾,对移民意向的社会经济预测因素进行系统梳理和详细分析。根据分析的文献,确定了移民意向的五类社会经济预测因素:人口、经济、社会心理、政治和文化。这项研究有助于更详细地了解移民意向的社会经济预测因素,从而在制定旨在管理移民潮的政府政策时做出更准确的决策。
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