Possibilities of using econometrical methods in studying of interregional interactions of migration in transportation

Abstract

Thе article presents a set of methodological approaches to forecasting the spatial heterogeneity of transportation migration flows in Russia. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodological basis for forecasting the migration flows spatial heterogeneity. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the presentation and systematization of methodological approaches specific to studying socio-economic factors affecting migration flows considering spatial heterogeneity in the context of the Russia. The study has potential practical value for developing effective migration policies and strategies of spatial development in the country. The study uses general scientific methods of cognition and system-structural analysis and theoretical research method. In the course of the work, a literature review was conducted and forecasting methods applicable in studying migration flows in the ratio of transport accessibility, which are based on the real data analysis, have been analyzed. The results of the study showed that it is possible to study migration flows by spatial autocorrelation methods, and the main explanation of this process is socio-economic factors. Regression analysis revealed a significant correlation between migration flows and such factors as income level, development of transportation infrastructure, accessibility, education and other factors calculated in absolute units. The Moran index application to the migration flows analysis is a scientifically new method that allows us to study the migration spatial aspects in more depth and to identify their characteristics and interrelationships at a new level. The methods base obtained can be useful for calculations and further informed decision-making aimed at reducing spatial inequalities and stimulating sustainable spatial development.