The Determinants of Internal Migration in an Emerging Market: Evidence from Vietnam

Abstract

Internal migration has been a challenging issue for Vietnam in the past three decades, with swift industrialization and urbanization at the two ends of the country—the capital city, Hanoi, in the north and the largest city, Ho Chi Minh City, in the south. This study identifies the determinants of internal migration with a focus on the characteristics of Vietnamese households and the household heads, together with their living conditions. A logit model is used in our analysis in three scenarios: (a) the entire sample of 8,567 households, (b) a sub-sample of households in the rural regions and (c) a sub-sample of households in the urban regions using the latest 2020 Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey. Our empirical results indicate that migration decisions are strongly associated with the characteristics of the households and the household heads, including household income, size, age of the household heads and educational attainment. We also find that living conditions such as radiation and rainfall are inversely related to the decisions for internal migration in Vietnam, meaning that people living in locations with unfavourable rainfall are more likely to migrate to destinations with more favourable rainfall conditions.