The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on crime dynamics in the Republic of Poland in terms of ukrainian refugeeism

Abstract

The objectiv of the study was to answer the question: what impact has the wave of refugees from Ukraine caused by the outbreak of war on its territory had on the dynamics of crime in Poland?The arrivals from Ukraine in the Republic of Poland and departures for Ukraine were analyzed. The study also examines the population dynamics in Poland from 2018 to 2023, including deaths and births. The research also takes into account the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the population size in Poland. Such an approach was necessary to conduct a comparative analysis of changes in population dynamics and crime dynamics in Poland in order to determine the relationship between them in the examined period, taking into account national demographic changes. At the same time, crimes detected in Poland from 2019 to 2023 in the same periods, from January to October, were analyzed.Studies show that the COVID-19 pandemic and migration from Ukraine to Poland had a noticeable impact on the population in the Republic of Poland. In 2021, the population in Poland decreased, which was mainly due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and a large increase in the number of deaths. In 2022, compared to 2021, there was an increase in the population as a result of a decrease in human deaths, as well as the granting of Polish citizenship to foreigners in 2022. At the same time, the analysis looked at the numbers of crimes found in Poland in 2019-2023 in univariate time frames from January to October combined, which showed no significant changes in this regard.The results from the research allowed to conclude that the wave of refugees from Ukraine caused by the outbreak of war on its territory did not noticeably affect the increase in crime in Poland.