A closed-form criterion to identify high-mobility flowslides

Abstract

This paper derives a closed-form criterion to assess the risk of flowslide runout in loose frictional soil. The derivations rely on a recently proposed framework to simulate pre- and post-failure motion in infinite slopes. An analytical solution of the coupled differential equations capturing flowslide hydromechanics is obtained by specifying them for a perfectly plastic constitutive law. This result enables a comprehensive examination of the factors that control whether the landslide motion, once triggered, autonomously comes to rest (self-regulating behavior with low mobility) or continues to propagate (self-feeding behavior with high mobility). It is found that the time history of motion is regulated by non-dimensional property groups reflecting the timescale of excess pore pressure dissipation and the inertial properties of the liquefied zone, which are in turn governed by material (e.g., hydraulic conductivity, dilation coefficient, elastic moduli) and slope properties (e.g., thickness, inclination). The solution is used to build charts identifying the critical ranges of soil properties and triggering factors that differentiate between high-mobility and low-mobility flowslides. Most importantly, it is shown that the fate of flowslide motions is predicted by a critical ratio expressed in terms of excess pore pressure and flow velocity, here defined factor of mobility, FM, with values above 1 indicating a self-feeding runout.