The effect of Brexit on British workers living in Portugal: a synthetic control method approach

Abstract

The effect of Brexit is an important topic in European and British political agendas. In this study, we examine the effect of Brexit on the Portuguese labour market. We apply the synthetic control method to estimate how the number of UK citizens working in Portugal would have evolved if the Remain vote had won the referendum. Our results suggest that the Brexit referendum reduced the number of UK-dependent workers in Portugal, particularly in the case of non-university-educated, male individuals with temporary employment contracts. This reduction is explained by the decrease in the number of incomers. We also find that those UK citizens who were already working in Portugal before Brexit were more likely to continue working in the host country.