Media influences on corn futures pricing

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q2 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY

European Review of Agricultural Economics Pub Date : 2024-03-16 DOI:10.1093/erae/jbae002

Xinquan Zhou, Guillaume Bagnarosa, Michael Dowling, Jagadish Dandu

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Understanding agricultural commodity futures is crucial for efficient business operations. This study employs textual machine learning on 290,271 articles (2009–2020) focusing on corn markets, aiming to model the impact of news on corn futures pricing. Our novel approach enables the identification of seven distinct topics within corn news, offering a comprehensive view of the news coverage spectrum. Soybean biofuel news notably influences corn prices, while exports, weather and wheat news significantly impact pricing uncertainty. These insights deepen our understanding of factors shaping corn futures and highlight machine learning’s potential in agricultural economic analysis, enabling more accurate market predictions and policy decisions.

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媒体对玉米期货定价的影响

了解农产品期货对于企业的高效运营至关重要。本研究对 290,271 篇关注玉米市场的文章（2009-2020 年）进行了文本机器学习，旨在模拟新闻对玉米期货定价的影响。我们的新方法能够在玉米新闻中识别出七个不同的主题，为新闻报道范围提供了一个全面的视角。大豆生物燃料新闻对玉米价格的影响显著，而出口、天气和小麦新闻则对定价的不确定性产生重大影响。这些见解加深了我们对影响玉米期货因素的理解，凸显了机器学习在农业经济分析中的潜力，使我们能够做出更准确的市场预测和政策决策。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

European Review of Agricultural Economics 管理科学-农业经济与政策

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

5.90%

发文量

审稿时长

>24 weeks

期刊介绍： The European Review of Agricultural Economics serves as a forum for innovative theoretical and applied agricultural economics research. The ERAE strives for balanced coverage of economic issues within the broad subject matter of agricultural and food production, consumption and trade, rural development, and resource use and conservation. Topics of specific interest include multiple roles of agriculture; trade and development; industrial organisation of the food sector; institutional dynamics; consumer behaviour; sustainable resource use; bioenergy; agricultural, agri-environmental and rural policy; specific European issues. Methodological articles are welcome. All published papers are at least double peer reviewed and must show originality and innovation. The ERAE also publishes book reviews.

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