Secular stagnation: Is immigration part of the solution?

IF 1.7 4区经济学 Q3 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

Journal of International Development Pub Date : 2023-12-10 DOI:10.1002/jid.3866

José Alves, Sandro Morgado

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We review the secular stagnation hypothesis, first postulated by Hansen in 1939, to describe the current macroeconomic dynamics faced by developed economies. We argue that these economies are experiencing secular stagnation and that demographic factors play a significant role in this macroeconomic environment. Using a panel data analysis covering the period 1965–2020 for 15 European Union economies, our paper suggests that immigration should be considered as a potential solution to this problem. Our results show that demographic factors do indeed play a significant role in secular stagnation and that immigration has a positive impact in this macroeconomic context.

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世俗停滞：移民是解决方案的一部分吗？

我们回顾了汉森于 1939 年首次提出的世俗停滞假说，以描述发达经济体当前面临的宏观经济动态。我们认为，这些经济体正在经历世俗停滞，而人口因素在这种宏观经济环境中发挥着重要作用。通过对 1965-2020 年期间 15 个欧盟经济体的面板数据进行分析，我们的论文提出，应将移民视为解决这一问题的潜在办法。我们的研究结果表明，人口因素确实在世俗停滞中发挥了重要作用，而移民在这种宏观经济环境中具有积极影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of International Development DEVELOPMENT STUDIES-

CiteScore

2.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

109

期刊介绍： The Journal aims to publish the best research on international development issues in a form that is accessible to practitioners and policy-makers as well as to an academic audience. The main focus is on the social sciences - economics, politics, international relations, sociology and anthropology, as well as development studies - but we also welcome articles that blend the natural and social sciences in addressing the challenges for development. The Journal does not represent any particular school, analytical technique or methodological approach, but aims to publish high quality contributions to ideas, frameworks, policy and practice, including in transitional countries and underdeveloped areas of the Global North as well as the Global South.