Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of pre-hospital delay in patients with acute myocardial infarction.

Abstract

Background: Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a severe cardiovascular disease caused by the blockage of coronary arteries that leads to ischemic necrosis of the myocardium. Timely medical contact is critical for successful AMI treatment, and delays increase the risk of death for patients. Pre-hospital delay time (PDT) is a significant challenge for reducing treatment times, as identifying high-risk patients with AMI remains difficult. This study aims to construct a risk prediction model to identify high-risk patients and develop targeted strategies for effective and prompt care, ultimately reducing PDT and improving treatment outcomes.

Aim: To construct a nomogram model for forecasting pre-hospital delay (PHD) likelihood in patients with AMI and to assess the precision of the nomogram model in predicting PHD risk.

Methods: A retrospective cohort design was employed to investigate predictive factors for PHD in patients with AMI diagnosed between January 2022 and September 2022. The study included 252 patients, with 180 randomly assigned to the development group and the remaining 72 to the validation group in a 7:3 ratio. Independent risk factors influencing PHD were identified in the development group, leading to the establishment of a nomogram model for predicting PHD in patients with AMI. The model's predictive performance was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve in both the development and validation groups.

Results: Independent risk factors for PHD in patients with AMI included living alone, hyperlipidemia, age, diabetes mellitus, and digestive system diseases (P < 0.05). A nomogram model incorporating these five predictors accurately predicted PHD occurrence. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.787 (95% confidence interval: 0.716-0.858) and 0.770 (95% confidence interval: 0.660-0.879) in the development and validation groups, respectively, demonstrating the model's good discriminatory ability. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test revealed no statistically significant disparity between the anticipated and observed incidence of PHD in both development and validation cohorts (P > 0.05), indicating satisfactory model calibration.

Conclusion: The nomogram model, developed with independent risk factors, accurately forecasts PHD likelihood in AMI individuals, enabling efficient identification of PHD risk in these patients.