An analysis of the NCAA college football playoff team selections using an Elo ratings model

Abstract

In December 2023 the Florida State Seminoles became the first Power 5 school to have an undefeated season and miss selection for the College Football Playoff. In order to assess this decision, we employed an Elo ratings model to rank the teams and found that the selection committee's decision was justified and that Florida State were not one of the four best teams in college football in that season (ranking only 11th!). We extended this analysis to all other years of the CFP and found that the top four teams by Elo ratings differ greatly from the four teams selected in almost every year of the CFP's existence. Furthermore, we found that there have been more egregious non-selections including when Alabama was ranked first by Elo ratings in 2022 and were not selected. The analysis suggests that the current criteria are too subjective and a ratings model should be implemented to provide transparency for the sport, its teams, and its fans.