Income predictability and budgeting

Abstract

Unpredictable income poses a significant threat to economic stability for many U.S. households. While budgeting may help to mitigate some of the negative effects of unpredictable income, the process of budgeting can also be more challenging under such circumstances. This paper presents new descriptive evidence on the relationship between income predictability, financial wellbeing, and budgeting behavior using data from a nationally-representative survey of nearly 4000 U.S. adults. We document a strong negative relationship between income unpredictability and financial wellbeing. However, the strength of this negative relationship is substantially attenuated for those who budget. This suggests that budgeting may be a useful tool for mitigating the adverse effects of unpredictable income. Despite these benefits, the propensity to budget is significantly lower among those with the most unpredictable income. These findings indicate the need for policy reforms that insure households against unpredictable income in addition to efforts targeting individual-level financial management strategies.