What Influence Could the Acceptance of Visitors Cause on the Epidemic Dynamics of a Reinfectious Disease?: A Mathematical Model

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-02-25 DOI:10.1007/s10441-024-09478-w

Ying Xie, Ishfaq Ahmad, ThankGod I. S. Ikpe, Elza F. Sofia, Hiromi Seno

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Abstract

The globalization in business and tourism becomes crucial more and more for the economical sustainability of local communities. In the presence of an epidemic outbreak, there must be such a decision on the policy by the host community as whether to accept visitors or not, the number of acceptable visitors, or the condition for acceptable visitors. Making use of an SIRI type of mathematical model, we consider the influence of visitors on the spread of a reinfectious disease in a community, especially assuming that a certain proportion of accepted visitors are immune. The reinfectivity of disease here means that the immunity gained by either vaccination or recovery is imperfect. With the mathematical results obtained by our analysis on the model for such an epidemic dynamics of resident and visitor populations, we find that the acceptance of visitors could have a significant influence on the disease’s endemicity in the community, either suppressive or supportive.

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接受游客会对一种传染性疾病的流行动态产生什么影响？一个数学模型

商业和旅游业的全球化对当地社区的经济可持续性越来越重要。在流行病爆发的情况下，东道主社区必须就是否接受游客、可接受游客的数量或可接受游客的条件等政策做出决定。利用 SIRI 类型的数学模型，我们考虑了游客对社区内再传染性疾病传播的影响，特别是假定一定比例的被接纳游客是免疫的。这里所说的疾病的再感染性是指通过接种疫苗或康复所获得的免疫力是不完全的。根据我们对这种居民和游客流行病动态模型的分析所得出的数学结果，我们发现，游客的接纳可能会对疾病在社区的流行产生重大影响，无论是抑制性影响还是支持性影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.