Analysis of Forest Inventory Data Shows Disparity in Tree Mortality and Resistance in Texas National Forests

Abstract

In 2011, the forestlands of Texas were affected by one of the most severe droughts in the state’s history, killing an estimated 65 million trees in the East Texas region. This study uses USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data and a standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index to estimate major tree species responses to the 2011 drought in Texas’ four national forests. We used an analysis of variance and a linear mixed-effect model to evaluate factors contributing to tree mortality and growth. We found that tree mortality rates varied greatly during the drought period relative to predrought levels; higher stand age, higher stand density, and higher mean summer temperature contributed to tree mortality volume. Study Implications: Drought is a recurring disturbance agent and is likely to continue to increase in frequency and severity in the future. We provide an understanding of an exceptional drought as a disturbance agent and its impacts on tree mortality and resistance. The effects of the 2011 drought on national forests in Texas have not previously been evaluated. Texas’ national forests represent over 256,975 ha (635,000 ac) in the state’s eastern region and nearly 10% of all public land in Texas. Our results are useful to decision makers in developing strategies and protecting forestlands in the face of potential future droughts.