{"title":"Long-run effects on county employment rates of demand shocks to county and commuting zone employment","authors":"Timothy J. Bartik","doi":"10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.103988","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper estimates the long-run effects on a county's prime-age employment rate of labor demand shocks to both the county and its overlying commuting zone (CZ). These effects are allowed to vary with local “distress” (a low baseline employment rate of the county or CZ), and with the size of the demand shock. In more distressed CZs, a county's employment rate is more affected by county or CZ shocks. As a result, targeting or reallocating jobs to more distressed CZs will tend to raise employment rates. If a county is relatively distressed compared to its CZ, targeting job shocks at that county has greater effects on county employment rates. Reallocating CZ jobs or job shocks towards more distressed counties within a CZ results in greater effects on the CZ's average employment rate. In addition, a CZ shock's effects on a county's employment rate tend to be higher if the CZ's baseline demand-driven expected growth trend is below average. This is particularly true in CZs whose baseline distress was average or low.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48196,"journal":{"name":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","volume":"105 ","pages":"Article 103988"},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Regional Science and Urban Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166046224000127","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This paper estimates the long-run effects on a county's prime-age employment rate of labor demand shocks to both the county and its overlying commuting zone (CZ). These effects are allowed to vary with local “distress” (a low baseline employment rate of the county or CZ), and with the size of the demand shock. In more distressed CZs, a county's employment rate is more affected by county or CZ shocks. As a result, targeting or reallocating jobs to more distressed CZs will tend to raise employment rates. If a county is relatively distressed compared to its CZ, targeting job shocks at that county has greater effects on county employment rates. Reallocating CZ jobs or job shocks towards more distressed counties within a CZ results in greater effects on the CZ's average employment rate. In addition, a CZ shock's effects on a county's employment rate tend to be higher if the CZ's baseline demand-driven expected growth trend is below average. This is particularly true in CZs whose baseline distress was average or low.
期刊介绍：
Regional Science and Urban Economics facilitates and encourages high-quality scholarship on important issues in regional and urban economics. It publishes significant contributions that are theoretical or empirical, positive or normative. It solicits original papers with a spatial dimension that can be of interest to economists. Empirical papers studying causal mechanisms are expected to propose a convincing identification strategy.
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