Prospects for the development of the Northern Sea Route after February 2022: An analysis of Russia's policy in the new conditions

Abstract

This paper aims to evaluate Russian state policy towards the development of the Northern Sea Route with all the political, economic, and financial challenges that followed the war between Russia and Ukraine after February 2022. Much attention has been paid to the new plan of the development of the Northern Sea Route until 2035, adopted by the Government in August 2022 since this is a strategic document serving as a starting point in the analysis of Russia's long-term goals in the Arctic. The analysis shows that the Russian authorities do not want to downgrade the importance and potential of Arctic development, including the Northern Sea Route, although demand for Russian oil and gas is declining except in China and a few other countries, and Russia is having difficulties acquiring essential technologies from developed countries. The Russian Government appears to be more focused on the domestic purpose of the Northern Sea Route, i.e., maintaining the local economy in the Arctic region, including cabotage transportation (shipping between two Russian ports) and northern supply (severnyi zavoz).