Is a Māori contact‐era population of 100,000 too low? Evidence from population density analogues

Abstract

This research considers the current New Zealand conventional wisdom of a Māori contact‐era population of 100,000 circa‐1770 using a variety of population density analogues. The first set of analogues examines estimated population densities of six districts in early‐contact period New Zealand for which reasonable population estimates can be constructed using methods of historical demography. The second set examines estimated population densities of pre‐industrial societies on large, relatively isolated temperate islands outside of New Zealand. The density research indicates that a contact‐era Māori population in excess of 200,000 is a distinct possibility. Based on this density analysis the current conventional wisdom's figure of 100,000 appears to be—considerably—on the low side, and suggesting considerable catastrophic early post‐contact population decline.