Does every game matter? A new perspective on the league standing effect in major league baseball

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the league standing effect on Major League Baseball game attendance in a more nuanced way than previously analyzed. We define various standings-based states that consider the home team's positioning in their respective playoff race and estimate the effects these standings-based goals have on game attendance. Using simulation to produce rest-of-season and postseason projections, we find that teams actively fighting to make the playoffs have higher attendances, a result that is consistent throughout the sample period and throughout the season. We also find that playing for a division title has a positive effect on attendance, but only for teams that have not won their division in recent seasons and only during the final month of the season. Other postseason considerations, such as improving seeding and finishing with the best overall record, also show evidence of impacting attendance, but again just during the final month of the season. Non-playoff standings-based goals, such as finishing with a winning record or improving record over the previous season, show no evidence of positively impacting attendance, except in the later years of the sample period. Finally, we consider the impact of changes made to MLB's playoff format prior to 2012, finding a net positive effect on league attendance. We also uncover shifting fan preferences related to competing for a playoff spot and winning their division. Ultimately, we provide valuable insights into the league standing effect, which has implications for other leagues considering changes in their postseason formats.