Simulating socio-hydrological responses to climatic conditions in Phoenix, Arizona

IF 2.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Renee Obringer, Dave D. White
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Providing adequate water supply to the growing number of urban residents will be a challenge faced by many utility managers throughout the remainder of this century. Though traditionally, water managers have looked toward supply-based solutions (e.g., expanding reservoirs), recent trends indicate a shift toward demand-side management (e.g., encouraging conservation behaviors). Here, we present an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates water supply as a function of the local climatic conditions and water consumption, which is, in part, determined based on water conservation attitudes. Our results indicate the ABM performs well (normalized root mean squared error <10%) for the study area. Further, we explore various hypothetical demand management scenarios by changing the water conservation attitudes of the households (i.e., the archetypes). This scenario testing reveals a statistically significant improvement to water availability after successfully changing water conservation attitudes to be more participatory. Ultimately, this study aims to understand the nuances of water conservation attitudes and aid utilities in their goal to better manage urban water demand.

Abstract Image

模拟亚利桑那州凤凰城对气候条件的社会-水文反应
在本世纪余下的时间里,为日益增多的城市居民提供充足的供水将是许多公用事业管理者面临的挑战。尽管传统上水资源管理者一直在寻求基于供给的解决方案(如扩建水库),但最近的趋势表明他们正在转向需求方管理(如鼓励节约用水行为)。在此,我们提出了一个基于代理的模型(ABM),该模型模拟了作为当地气候条件和用水量函数的供水量,而用水量在一定程度上是由节水态度决定的。结果表明,该模型在研究地区的表现良好(归一化均方根误差小于 10%)。此外,我们还通过改变住户(即原型)的节水态度,探索了各种假设的需求管理方案。这种情景测试表明,在成功改变节水态度,使其更具参与性后,水资源可用性在统计学上得到了显著改善。最终,本研究旨在了解节水态度的细微差别,帮助公用事业公司实现更好地管理城市用水需求的目标。
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来源期刊
Journal of The American Water Resources Association
Journal of The American Water Resources Association 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
100
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: JAWRA seeks to be the preeminent scholarly publication on multidisciplinary water resources issues. JAWRA papers present ideas derived from multiple disciplines woven together to give insight into a critical water issue, or are based primarily upon a single discipline with important applications to other disciplines. Papers often cover the topics of recent AWRA conferences such as riparian ecology, geographic information systems, adaptive management, and water policy. JAWRA authors present work within their disciplinary fields to a broader audience. Our Associate Editors and reviewers reflect this diversity to ensure a knowledgeable and fair review of a broad range of topics. We particularly encourage submissions of papers which impart a ''take home message'' our readers can use.
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