Estimating age-dependent performance in paired comparisons competitions: application to snooker

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-02-01 DOI:10.1515/jqas-2023-0082

Rose D. Baker, Ian G. McHale

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We first present a model for the outcome of snooker matches in which player strengths are allowed to vary deterministically with time. The results allow us to identify the greatest players of all time, and to examine the relationship between age and performance. Second, we present a random effects model which uses the estimated strengths from our first model, to forecast player performance, and to assess the extent to which early promise has been maintained. Ronnie O’Sullivan and Stephen Hendry are the two candidates for the title of the greatest of all time. We find that peak performance occurs between the ages of 25 and 30, younger than would be expected when compared to findings in other sports. Outside sport, these findings contribute to the general literature on variation of performance with age.

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估算成对比较竞赛中与年龄有关的成绩：斯诺克的应用

我们首先提出了一个斯诺克比赛结果模型，在该模型中，选手实力随时间变化而确定。其结果使我们能够确定有史以来最伟大的球员，并研究年龄与表现之间的关系。其次，我们提出了一个随机效应模型，利用第一个模型估算出的实力来预测球员的表现，并评估早期承诺的保持程度。罗尼-奥沙利文（Ronnie O'Sullivan）和斯蒂芬-亨德利（Stephen Hendry）是史上最伟大选手的两位候选人。我们发现，他们的巅峰表现出现在 25 岁到 30 岁之间，与其他运动项目的研究结果相比，他们的年龄比预期的要小。除体育运动外，这些研究结果还为有关随年龄变化的表现的一般文献做出了贡献。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.