Dynamics and prospects of development of China’s fishing industry and its role in the global economy

Abstract

Objective: to reflect the retrospective, current and prospective state of the fishing industry in China, to assess the existing trends and highlight their key factors.Method: general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, as well as methods of statistical processing, analysis and visualization of data were used.Novelty: the main factors and conditions that ensure the progressive growth of the fishing industry in China are identified; a forecast model for the growth of fish production is constructed.Results: The key indicators of China’s fishing industry in retrospect and the current state are analyzed; a quantitative characteristic of China’s position in the global fishing industry and trade in fish products is given; a quarterly forecast of the output of the country’s fishing industry is constructed based on modeling of dynamics series with seasonal components. The key guidelines of the Chinese government regarding the development of the industry, implemented within the framework of five-year planning, aimed at reducing the burden on the environment, restructuring the industry towards increasing the scale of aquaculture, qualitative improvement of the industry on the basis of innovative technological potential and scientific developments, are disclosed.Conclusions are drawn about the multiplicative effect of modern transformations in the fishing industry of China, significant both for the national and for the global economy as a whole.