Implementación de un modelo de pronóstico de series de tiempo para estiman exceso de muertes en Brasil en 2020

Abstract

Goals: The aim of this paper is to understand the behavior of the Covid-19 pandemic on the national Brazilian scenario and describe how it affected the mortality rate. Methods: Implement a predictor model using ARIMA modeling concepts and data extracted from the Unified Health System database, in order to estimate the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 in Brazil during 2020. Results: COVID-19 is estimated to have contributed, on average, to a surplus of 713 daily deaths. Conclusion: Even considering the records of deaths by COVID-19 on the result of the prediction, it is observed that the combination is below the real curve, which indicates that there is underreporting of deaths caused by this disease during the year 2020 in Brazil.