Spatial patterns of built structures co-determine nations’ level of resource demand

Abstract

Societies’ use of material resources is increasingly recognized as a key factor behind sustainability problems. The mass of materials used per capita and year differs substantially between countries. However, a limited range of variables (mostly per-capita gross domestic product [GDP]) were analyzed to explain this variation. Spatial patterns of cities influence their resource use, but the role of patterns of settlements and infrastructures as co-determinants of national-level material use is unknown, mainly due to lacking data to investigate their effects at that scale. Here we start closing this gap by systematically analyzing a broad set of potential determinants of national per-capita material demand, including built structures. Material demand is represented by both production- and consumption-based indicators. Among its potential determinants, we analyze eight novel indicators representing extent and spatial patterns of settlements and transport infrastructures in each country, along with GDP and other indicators considered so far. Analyzing 123 countries inhabited by 91% of the world population and accounting for 92% of world GDP, we show that built structures strongly co-determine resource use. Indicators of extent and spatial patterns of built structures have substantial additional explanatory power beyond GDP and other conventional indicators for both production- and consumption-based material flow indicators. The area of built-up land per capita emerges as the strongest predictor, but several other indicators representing built structures are also highly relevant. Limiting built-up land and designing spatial patterns of built structures hence deserve attention in attempts to reduce societies’ resource throughput.