The impact of demographic change on the natural rate of interest in Japan

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Japan and the World Economy Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI:10.1016/j.japwor.2023.101237

Fei Han

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper develops a semi-structural model to estimate the impact of demographic changes on the natural rate of interest in Japan. We find that demographic changes have a significantly negative impact on the natural rate by lowering the trend potential growth. We also find that the negative impact has increased over time amid stronger demographic headwinds. A lower natural rate of interest could challenge the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the economy. These findings call for measures to boost Japan’s potential growth to offset the negative demographic impact and lift the natural rate of interest.

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人口变化对日本自然利率的影响*

本文建立了一个半结构模型来估算日本人口变化对自然利率的影响。我们发现，人口变化会降低趋势潜在增长率，从而对自然利率产生显著的负面影响。我们还发现，随着时间的推移，这种负面影响在更强的人口逆风中有所加剧。较低的自然利率可能会对日本央行重振经济的努力构成挑战。这些发现要求采取措施提高日本的潜在增长率，以抵消人口的负面影响并提高自然利率。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Japan and the World Economy ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

46 days

期刊介绍： The increase in Japan share of international trade and financial transactions has had a major impact on the world economy in general and on the U.S. economy in particular. The new economic interdependence between Japan and its trading partners created a variety of problems and so raised many issues that require further study. Japan and the World Economy will publish original research in economics, finance, managerial sciences, and marketing that express these concerns.