Communal Violence in Nigeria, 2014–21: Mapping, Modeling, and Trends

Abstract

ABSTRACT:This study dissects the patterns and trends of communal violence in Nigeria with the need to watch out for emerging predictors. Using variables like ethno-religious polarization, lootable resources, and climate vulnerability, the article dissects their impacts on the trends of communal violence in Nigeria. Based on data from the Nigerian Security Tracker, Nigeria Watch, and the Federal Ministry of Environment (2014 to 2021), this study uses cluster analyses of the conflicts using maps and tables to analyze the patterns and new dimensions of conflicts. The study found evidence that ethno-religious polarization is a predictor of trends of communal violence in Nigeria. The weakest predictor of communal violence, according to the model, is climate vulnerability in Nigeria.