Impact of climate change on the extreme weather hazards and natural disasters in Bulgaria

Mariyana Nikolova
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Abstract

The question of whether the climate of Bulgaria is changing and in what direction is not yet fully understood and this gives rise to various hypotheses and analyzes, which are often a reason for heated discussions between scientists with different expertise. However, there is agreement between the scientists that the increase in the frequency and intensity of meteorological and climate extremes and the natural disasters provoked by them are related to climate change. The possible effects of climate and meteorological extreems on the risk of adverse events and natural disasters in Bulgaria have been studied by different authors for different periods of observation. There are also many open access data that we have used for analysis purposes in this paper. The article aims to interpret the results of various studies on the changes in the behavior of major climatic and meteorological elements and extremes in Bulgaria in recent decades in the context of existing scenarios and indicators of climate change in the latter. The results show that there are already changes in the indicators for the territory of our country and that Bulgaria will be significantly affected by the global warming to the end of this century. This impact will in most cases be unfavorable both for the country’s economy and for the people’s health and the state of ecosystems, and will contribute to increasing the risk of natural disasters.
气候变化对保加利亚极端天气危害和自然灾害的影响
保加利亚的气候是否正在发生变化以及变化的方向如何,这个问题还没有完全搞清楚, 因此产生了各种假设和分析,这往往是具有不同专业知识的科学家之间进行激烈讨论的原因。不过,科学家们一致认为,极端气象和气候现象及其引发的自然灾害的频率和强度的增加与气候变化有关。不同的作者根据不同的观察期研究了气候和极端气象对保加利亚不利事件和自然灾害风险的可能影响。我们在本文中还使用了许多可公开获取的数据进行分析。文章旨在结合保加利亚现有的气候变化情景和指标,解释近几十年来保加利亚主要气候和气象要素及极端气候行为变化的各种研究结果。研究结果表明,我国境内的指标已经发生了变化,到本世纪末,保加利亚将受到全球变暖的严重影响。在大多数情况下,这种影响将对国家经济、人民健康和生态系统状况不利,并将增加自然灾害的风险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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