Use of causal loop diagrams to assess future drivers and trends in South African transport

IF 1.1 Q4 MANAGEMENT
Frederik C. Rust, Leslie R. Sampson, Adriana A. Cachia, Benoit M. Verhaeghe, Helena S. Fourie, Michelle A. Smit
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: In view of limited funding, research and development (RD) investment needs to be optimised for future impact. Road transport RD is complex and vary from road materials, design and traffic control to safety.Objectives: Future drivers, trends and technologies in the South African road transport sector were determined and rated. Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) were used to determine how they will influence the sector and potential future RD focus areas.Method: Literature reviews, stakeholder interviews and workshops assessed the prevailing state of the sector and identified and rated the drivers, trends and technologies that will impact it. A novel method for structured technology foresight using CLDs was used to analyse the interrelationship between these elements and to determine the gaps in knowledge and the technologies required to position the sector for the future.Results: Eighteen mega-drivers, 28 industry drivers, 53 trends and 79 key technologies were identified and rated by 98 workshop participants. The CLD analysis provided insight into the characteristics of the transport system and enhanced the understanding of the complexity of the system. Research focus areas were identified to position the transport sector for the future.Conclusion: Causal loop diagrams were used effectively to demonstrate the interrelationships between and influence of drivers, trends and technologies on the transport sector and to identify gaps in knowledge.Contribution: The current and future drivers, trends and technologies in the transport sector were identified and CLDs used to assess the relationships between them which led to the identification of new focus areas for RD.
利用因果循环图评估南非交通运输的未来驱动因素和趋势
背景:在资金有限的情况下,需要优化研究与开发 (RD) 投资,以对未来产生影响。道路运输研发工作十分复杂,从道路材料、设计、交通管制到安全都不尽相同:确定并评估南非道路运输行业未来的驱动因素、趋势和技术。使用因果循环图(CLD)来确定它们将如何影响该行业以及未来可能的研发重点领域:方法:文献综述、利益相关者访谈和研讨会评估了该行业的现状,并确定和评定了将对其产生影响的驱动因素、趋势和技术。采用了一种新颖的方法,即利用 "CLDs "进行结构化技术展望,以分析这些要素之间的相互关系,并确定知识差距和所需技术,从而为该行业的未来发展定位:结果:98 位研讨会与会者确定了 18 个主要驱动因素、28 个行业驱动因素、53 个趋势和 79 个关键技术,并对其进行了评级。CLD分析深入揭示了运输系统的特点,加深了对系统复杂性的理解。确定了研究重点领域,以便为交通运输业的未来发展定位:结论:因果循环图被有效地用于展示驱动因素、趋势和技术之间的相互关系及其对运输部门的影响,并找出知识差距:贡献:确定了运输部门当前和未来的驱动因素、趋势和技术,并利用因果循环图评估了它们之间的关系,从而确定了研究与发展的新重点领域。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.00
自引率
6.70%
发文量
37
审稿时长
20 weeks
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