After Ukraine: How Can We Ensure Stability in the Arctic?

Abstract

“After Ukraine: How can we ensure stability in the Arctic?” presents the findings of two interview-based reports addressing the risk of conflict in the Arctic over a twenty-year perspective. We found that there are concerns that the Arctic may be torn apart as a result of geopolitical forces on several levels, and that the rules-based order in the Arctic has come under pressure after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the A7's subsequent decision to pause the Arctic Council. This presents a number of risks to future security in the region and the Arctic states are having difficulties figuring out how to move on from here. We identified some of these risks and formulated a set of policy recommendations to mitigate them.