Fractional-order modeling of visceral leishmaniasis disease transmission dynamics : strategies in eastern Sudan

Abstract

Fractional calculus has become an increasingly important tool for biological process modeling. In this study, we propose a novel fractional-order model that is used to analyze visceral leishmaniase (VL) transmission dynamics, incorporating the effects of interventions. By fitting the model to 22 years of cumulative VL cases, we estimate intervention effectiveness and key parameters. Our results show a high disease prevalence, with reported cases accounting for less than 20% of all infections. Both human and vector control measures show limited effectiveness. Future projections point to a further increase in cumulative cases.