A time-varying copula approach for describing seasonality in multivariate ocean data

IF 4 2区工程技术 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL

Marine Structures Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI:10.1016/j.marstruc.2023.103567

Pengfei Ma, Yi Zhang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Characterizing multivariate ocean variables is quite critical for reliability design and risk assessment of marine structures. A robust, precise, and practical multivariate statistic model is necessary for comprehending ocean characteristics. As the time-varying characteristics exist in the ocean data, it is unreasonable to employ a simple constant statistical model to characterize all the multivariate data at one time. Therefore, in this paper, a time-varying copula approach is developed for modeling time-varying multivariate ocean data. Considering climate variations, a time-varying formula for return period and environment contour is also derived. The developed approach is demonstrated based on a site-specific ocean dataset collected from a buoy on the US coast. The climate effects associated with the multivariate ocean variables are characterized. The developed time-varying copula approach is also compared to the conventional copula and the conditional model in estimating the return period. The results showed that the time-varying model is helpful to explore the most critical environmental conditions for marine structures.

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描述多元海洋数据季节性的时变共轭方法

表征多元海洋变量对于海洋结构的可靠性设计和风险评估至关重要。要理解海洋特征，就必须有一个稳健、精确和实用的多元统计模型。由于海洋数据存在时变特征，采用简单的恒定统计模型一次性描述所有多元数据的特征是不合理的。因此，本文开发了一种时变共轭方法，用于对时变多元海洋数据建模。考虑到气候的变化，还推导出了重现期和环境等值线的时变公式。基于从美国海岸浮标收集的特定地点海洋数据集，对所开发的方法进行了演示。对与多元海洋变量相关的气候效应进行了描述。在估计回归期方面，还将所开发的时变 copula 方法与传统 copula 和条件模型进行了比较。结果表明，时变模型有助于探索海洋结构最关键的环境条件。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Marine Structures 工程技术-工程：海洋

CiteScore

8.70

自引率

7.70%

发文量

157

审稿时长

6.4 months

期刊介绍： This journal aims to provide a medium for presentation and discussion of the latest developments in research, design, fabrication and in-service experience relating to marine structures, i.e., all structures of steel, concrete, light alloy or composite construction having an interface with the sea, including ships, fixed and mobile offshore platforms, submarine and submersibles, pipelines, subsea systems for shallow and deep ocean operations and coastal structures such as piers.