Assessment of Changes in the Temperature Regime of Northern Eurasia for the Next Five Years According to the INM RAS Earth System Model Forecasts and Their Possible Consequences for Agriculture

IF 1.4 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI:10.3103/s1068373923090029

V. M. Khan, R. M. Vil’fand, V. A. Tishchenko, S. V. Emelina, A. S. Gritsun, E. M. Volodin, V. V. Vorobyeva, M. A. Tarasevich

{"title":"Assessment of Changes in the Temperature Regime of Northern Eurasia for the Next Five Years According to the INM RAS Earth System Model Forecasts and Their Possible Consequences for Agriculture","authors":"V. M. Khan, R. M. Vil’fand, V. A. Tishchenko, S. V. Emelina, A. S. Gritsun, E. M. Volodin, V. V. Vorobyeva, M. A. Tarasevich","doi":"10.3103/s1068373923090029","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3 data-test=\"abstract-sub-heading\">Abstract</h3><p>Estimates of future changes in the characteristics of the air temperature regime in Northern Eurasia over a five-year time interval are presented. The estimates are based on the forecasts of the Earth climate model developed at Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The skill of the forecasts for the territory of Northern Eurasia is discussed using standard skill scores for long-range forecasts. Regions where surface air temperature anomalies are likely to exceed the threshold targets of the Paris Agreement are identified. The consequences of a possible change in the growing season and dates of the stable air temperature above 5°C for agriculture are analyzed. The presented estimates of possible changes in the air temperature characteristics in Northern Eurasia over a five-year interval provide a more objective pattern of expected climate change and can be useful to determine optimal solutions for the development of agricultural sector in the changing climate and to minimize possible negative consequences.</p>","PeriodicalId":49581,"journal":{"name":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Russian Meteorology and Hydrology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3103/s1068373923090029","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Estimates of future changes in the characteristics of the air temperature regime in Northern Eurasia over a five-year time interval are presented. The estimates are based on the forecasts of the Earth climate model developed at Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The skill of the forecasts for the territory of Northern Eurasia is discussed using standard skill scores for long-range forecasts. Regions where surface air temperature anomalies are likely to exceed the threshold targets of the Paris Agreement are identified. The consequences of a possible change in the growing season and dates of the stable air temperature above 5°C for agriculture are analyzed. The presented estimates of possible changes in the air temperature characteristics in Northern Eurasia over a five-year interval provide a more objective pattern of expected climate change and can be useful to determine optimal solutions for the development of agricultural sector in the changing climate and to minimize possible negative consequences.

Abstract Image

查看原文本刊更多论文

根据 INM RAS 地球系统模式预测评估未来五年欧亚大陆北部气温变化及其对农业的可能影响

摘要介绍了未来五年欧亚大陆北部气温变化特征的估计。这些估计基于俄罗斯科学院马尔丘克数值数学研究所开发的地球气候模型的预测。使用远程预测的标准技能分数对欧亚大陆北部的预测技能进行了讨论。确定了地表气温异常有可能超过《巴黎协定》阈值目标的地区。分析了农业生长季节和稳定气温高于 5°C 的日期可能发生变化的后果。所提出的对欧亚大陆北部五年间气温特征可能发生的变化的估计，为预期气候变化提供了更客观的模式，有助于确定在不断变化的气候中发展农业部门的最佳解决方案，并最大限度地减少可能产生的负面影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-

CiteScore

1.70

自引率

28.60%

发文量

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Russian Meteorology and Hydrology is a peer reviewed journal that covers topical issues of hydrometeorological science and practice: methods of forecasting weather and hydrological phenomena, climate monitoring issues, environmental pollution, space hydrometeorology, agrometeorology.