Climate Change on the Territory of the Volga Federal District in the 20th–21st Centuries and Its Consequences for the Agrosphere

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Yu. P. Perevedentsev, K. M. Shantalinskii, N. A. Mirsaeva, A. A. Nikolaev, T. R. Aukhadeev, V. V. Gur’yanov, B. G. Sherstyukov
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Abstract

The spatial and temporal variability of the main climatic indicators on the territory of the Volga Federal District in the 20th–21st centuries is considered. A general increasing trend in air temperature is revealed, and a heterogeneous pattern of precipitation changes is shown. The temperature variations until the end of the 21st century are analyzed on the example of Kazan using 40 CMIP6 climate models for four anthropogenic scenarios. In the paper, there is an assessment of the dynamics of agroclimatic resources on the territory of the Volga Federal District: the duration of the growing season, the sum of positive temperatures, total precipitation, and photosynthetic radiation. A correlation has been found between the temperature fluctuations in the region and the atmospheric circulation indices (NAO, AO, SCAND, and EAWR). For the territory of Tatarstan, a degree of aridity and waterlogging is evaluated using the agroclimatic indices: the Budyko’s dryness index, the Selyaninov’s hydrothermal coefficient, the Sapozhnikova’s moisture index. It is shown that there is a tendency toward an increase in the duration of the growing season, its heat supply and aridity in the region in summer. A statistical estimation of the dependence of spring wheat yield on the agroclimatic indices on the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan is given.

Abstract Image

20-21 世纪伏尔加河沿岸地区的气候变化及其对农业的影响
摘要 研究了 20-21 世纪伏尔加河沿岸地区主要气候指标的时空变化。结果显示气温总体呈上升趋势,降水量的变化呈现出不同的模式。本文以喀山为例,使用 40 个 CMIP6 气候模型分析了 21 世纪末的气温变化,并提出了四种人为情景。文中评估了伏尔加联邦区农业气候资源的动态变化:生长季节的持续时间、正温总和、总降水量和光合辐射。该地区的气温波动与大气环流指数(NAO、AO、SCAND 和 EAWR)之间存在相关性。在鞑靼斯坦境内,利用农业气候指数评估了干旱和涝灾程度:布迪科干燥指数、谢里亚尼诺夫水热系数、萨波日尼科娃湿度指数。结果表明,该地区夏季的生长季节持续时间、热量供应和干旱程度都有增加的趋势。对鞑靼斯坦共和国境内春小麦产量与农业气候指数的关系进行了统计估算。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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