COVID-19 mortality trends before and after the national vaccination program in Iran: A joinpoint regression analysis

IF 0.4 Q4 CRITICAL CARE MEDICINE

Journal of Acute Disease Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI:10.4103/2221-6189.390388

M. Sepandi, Y. Alimohamadi, Kolsoom Alimohamadi

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

To investigate the trend of mortality by COVID-19 before and after the national vaccination program using joinpoint regression analysis from 19 February 2020 to 5 September 2022. In the present study, a joinpoint regression analysis of monthly collected data on confirmed deaths of COVID-19 in Iran from February 19, 2020 to September 5, 2022 was performed. After national vaccination in Iran, the trend of new monthly deaths due to COVID-19 was decreasing. The percentage of monthly changes from the beginning of the pandemic to the 19th month was 6.62% (95% CI: 1.1, 12.4), which had an increasing trend. From the 19th month to the end of the 31st month, the mortality trend was decreasing, and the percentage of monthly changes was −20.05% (95% CI: −8.3, −30.3) (P=0.002). The average percentage of monthly changes was −5% with a 95% CI of (−10.5, 0.9). Along with other health measures, such as quarantine, wearing a mask, hand washing, social distancing, etc., national vaccination significantly reduces the mortality rate of COVID-19.

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伊朗国家疫苗接种计划前后的 COVID-19 死亡率趋势：连接点回归分析

利用接合点回归分析法研究 2020 年 2 月 19 日至 2022 年 9 月 5 日国家疫苗接种计划前后 COVID-19 的死亡率趋势。本研究对 2020 年 2 月 19 日至 2022 年 9 月 5 日期间每月收集的伊朗 COVID-19 确诊死亡数据进行了连接点回归分析。在伊朗全国接种疫苗后，每月新增 COVID-19 死亡病例呈下降趋势。从大流行开始到第 19 个月，每月变化的百分比为 6.62%（95% CI：1.1，12.4），呈上升趋势。从第 19 个月到第 31 个月末，死亡率呈下降趋势，月变化百分比为-20.05%（95% CI：-8.3，-30.3）（P=0.002）。每月变化的平均百分比为-5%，95% CI 为（-10.5，0.9）。与其他卫生措施（如隔离、戴口罩、洗手、社交疏远等）一起，全民接种疫苗可显著降低 COVID-19 的死亡率。

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来源期刊

Journal of Acute Disease CRITICAL CARE MEDICINE-

自引率

20.00%

发文量

652

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： The articles published mainly deal with pre-hospital and hospital emergency medicine, cardiopulmonary-cerebral resuscitation, critical cardiovascular disease, sepsis, severe infection, multiple organ failure, acute and critical diseases in different medical fields, sudden cardiac arrest, Intensive Care Unit (ICU), critical care medicine, disaster rescue medicine (earthquakes, fires, floods, mine disaster, air crash, et al.), acute trauma, acute toxicology, acute heart disease, and related topics. JAD sets up columns for special subjects in each issue.