Climate change, cropland adjustments, and food security: Evidence from China

Abstract

Climate change is expected to reduce crop yields, but knowledge on how it affects agricultural land use is still limited. This paper empirically investigates the induced cropland adjustments in responding to long-run climate change in China. Based on county-level data over several decades, we employ a moving-average specification that exploits within-county variation in local climate normals. We show that cropland expands with rising temperature (precipitation) in cold (dry) areas, while the effect is reversed in hot (humid) areas. The results are consistent with the “long-difference” estimates and robust to a host of different specifications. Besides, local crop mix also evolves with the changing climate. However, accounting for the crop-mix adjustments, climate change by the mid-century is still predicted to significantly lower the national calorie provision through induced cropland adjustments, and an average yield growth of 17.6% (21.2%) would be required to offset the associated loss under RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5).