Analysis of the Impact of Land Use Change on Grain Production in Jiangsu Province, China

Abstract

Located in the Yangtze River Delta region, Jiangsu Province has become the major grain production area of China and plays an important role in ensuring national food security. With rapid economic development and urbanization, the amount of cultivated land has decreased, which greatly affects food security. Based on the statistical data of grain production in Jiangsu Province since 2000 and the remote sensing data of 2000, 2010, and 2020, this paper used the stochastic frontier production function to calculate the output elasticity of various factors and the technical efficiency of grain production. The agglomeration effect of food production was investigated by using spatial correlation analysis. Finally, regression analysis was applied to examine the impact of land use change on grain yield and the technical efficiency of production. The results show that the grain-sown area is the decisive factor for the increase in grain output in Jiangsu Province. The technical efficiency of grain production in the province has been maintained at a relatively high level since 2000, showing a fluctuating upward trend, and the efficiency value in southern Jiangsu Province is greater than that in central and northern Jiangsu. The analysis of the spatial distribution characteristics of grain production technical efficiency shows that grain production has an agglomeration effect. The regression results showed that the complexity of land use and the density of the cultivated land patch were negatively correlated with grain yield and grain production technical efficiency, while the location of cultivated land was positively correlated with grain yield and grain production technical efficiency. The conclusion of this paper has important policy significance for promoting food production and ensuring food security.