How to limit the spillover from an inflation surge to inflation expectations?

IF 4.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.12.004

Lena Dräger , Michael J. Lamla , Damjan Pfajfar

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Using a randomized control trial on German consumers we show that information about rising inflation increases inflation expectations. This initial increase in expectations can be mitigated by providing forecasts of inflation. Information about (future) inflation affects the whole term structure of inflation expectations, where the effects are smaller for longer-run expectations. This information also causes changes in consumption and savings decisions. In subsequent months—when consumers realize that inflation is much higher than the provided forecasts—they reverse the reliance on information about inflation forecasts and rely again more on their initial priors.

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如何限制通胀激增对通胀预期的溢出效应？

通过对德国消费者进行随机对照试验，我们发现有关通胀上升的信息会增加通胀预期。通过提供对通货膨胀的预测，可以缓解这种最初的预期增长。有关（未来）通胀的信息会影响通胀预期的整个期限结构，其中对长期预期的影响较小。这些信息还会引起消费和储蓄决策的变化。在随后的几个月里，当消费者意识到通胀率远高于所提供的预测时，他们就会改变对通胀预测信息的依赖，而更多地依赖于他们最初的预想。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Journal of Monetary Economics Multiple-

CiteScore

7.20

自引率

4.90%

发文量

审稿时长

74 days

期刊介绍： The profession has witnessed over the past twenty years a remarkable expansion of research activities bearing on problems in the broader field of monetary economics. The strong interest in monetary analysis has been increasingly matched in recent years by the growing attention to the working and structure of financial institutions. The role of various institutional arrangements, the consequences of specific changes in banking structure and the welfare aspects of structural policies have attracted an increasing interest in the profession. There has also been a growing attention to the operation of credit markets and to various aspects in the behavior of rates of return on assets. The Journal of Monetary Economics provides a specialized forum for the publication of this research.