Modelling and forecasting of urban flood under changing climate and land use land cover

IF 2.7 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 WATER RESOURCES
S. Anuthaman, Saravanan R., Balamurugan R., B. L.
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Abstract

Chennai is a rapidly urbanizing Indian megacity and experiences flooding frequently. Literature state that climate change and land use change have a significant impact on the runoff generated every year making it essential to study the historical trend and forecast changes in LULC and climate to model runoff. This study considered Adyar watershed for LULC change detection, climate change analysis, and flood forecasting for 2030 and 2050 based on LULC and runoff of 2005 and 2015. A coupled hydrologic–hydraulic model (HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS) was developed to assess flooding for future LULC and climate scenarios. LULC analysis shows an increase in built-up cover by 6%, and climate analysis shows a 74% probability of an increase in precipitation intensity between 2015 and 2050 compared to 2015. It was observed that depth of flooding increased by 19.4% in 2030 and 60.4% in 2050 compared to 2015. This study makes a structural proposition for flood mitigation through flood carrier canals on the downstream reach of the river, which flows through Chennai city. The canals were found to prevent overbanking, thereby providing complete protection against flooding. It is proved that this is the best possible measure that provides the highest flood reduction for the study area.
气候变化和土地利用土地覆被下的城市洪水模拟与预测
金奈是一个快速城市化的印度大城市,经常经历洪水。文献表明,气候变化和土地利用变化对每年产生的径流有显著影响,因此研究历史趋势和预测LULC和气候变化对径流模拟至关重要。本研究考虑Adyar流域的LULC变化检测、气候变化分析以及基于2005年和2015年LULC和径流的2030年和2050年洪水预测。开发了一个水文-水力耦合模型(HEC-HMS和HEC-RAS)来评估未来LULC和气候情景下的洪水。LULC分析显示,建筑覆盖增加了6%,气候分析显示,与2015年相比,2015年至2050年降水强度增加的可能性为74%。与2015年相比,2030年和2050年的洪水深度分别增加了19.4%和60.4%。本研究提出了在流经金奈市的河流下游通过泄洪渠进行防洪的结构性建议。人们发现这些运河可以防止银行过度放贷,从而完全防止洪水泛滥。实践证明,这是为研究区提供最大减洪量的最佳可能措施。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
10.70%
发文量
168
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Water and Climate Change publishes refereed research and practitioner papers on all aspects of water science, technology, management and innovation in response to climate change, with emphasis on reduction of energy usage.
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