Nonrandom Exposure to Exogenous Shocks

IF 6.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Econometrica Pub Date : 2023-12-07 DOI:10.3982/ECTA19367

Kirill Borusyak, Peter Hull

引用次数: 9

Abstract

We develop a new approach to estimating the causal effects of treatments or instruments that combine multiple sources of variation according to a known formula. Examples include treatments capturing spillovers in social or transportation networks and simulated instruments for policy eligibility. We show how exogenous shocks to some—but not all—determinants of such variables can be leveraged while avoiding omitted variables bias. Our solution involves specifying counterfactual shocks that may as well have been realized and adjusting for a summary measure of nonrandomness in shock exposure: the average treatment (or instrument) across shock counterfactuals. We use this approach to address bias when estimating employment effects of market access growth from Chinese high-speed rail construction.

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非随机暴露于外源冲击

我们开发了一种新方法来估算根据已知公式结合多种变异来源的处理或工具的因果效应。例子包括捕捉社会或交通网络溢出效应的处理方法和政策资格的模拟工具。我们展示了如何在避免遗漏变量偏差的同时，利用这些变量的某些（但不是全部）决定因素的外生冲击。我们的解决方案包括指定可能已经实现的反事实冲击，并对冲击暴露的非随机性进行调整：冲击反事实的平均处理（或工具）。在估算中国高铁建设带来的市场准入增长对就业的影响时，我们使用了这种方法来解决偏差问题。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Econometrica 社会科学-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

11.00

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Econometrica publishes original articles in all branches of economics - theoretical and empirical, abstract and applied, providing wide-ranging coverage across the subject area. It promotes studies that aim at the unification of the theoretical-quantitative and the empirical-quantitative approach to economic problems and that are penetrated by constructive and rigorous thinking. It explores a unique range of topics each year - from the frontier of theoretical developments in many new and important areas, to research on current and applied economic problems, to methodologically innovative, theoretical and applied studies in econometrics. Econometrica maintains a long tradition that submitted articles are refereed carefully and that detailed and thoughtful referee reports are provided to the author as an aid to scientific research, thus ensuring the high calibre of papers found in Econometrica. An international board of editors, together with the referees it has selected, has succeeded in substantially reducing editorial turnaround time, thereby encouraging submissions of the highest quality. We strongly encourage recent Ph. D. graduates to submit their work to Econometrica. Our policy is to take into account the fact that recent graduates are less experienced in the process of writing and submitting papers.