NK model-based analysis of technological trajectories: a study on the technological field of computer graphic processing systems

Abstract

This paper quantitatively analyzes how the interdependence of components and the complexity of technology relates to the formation of technological trajectories. This paper uses the idea of technological trajectory and a method called a main path analysis. Technological trajectory is an idea that describes the path-dependent technological evolution process. The technological trajectories of a technological field can be represented as the main paths of patent citation networks. This paper aims to elucidate some of the determinants of the evolution of technological trajectories using main path analysis. The hypotheses are derived from a model called the NK Model. The NK model describes the respective roles of the interdependence of components and of complexity in complex adaptive systems. Using the NK model, it can be understood that technologies with an intermediate level of interdependence and technologies with an intermediate level of complexity tend to be more successful than other technologies. According to the result, the patents on the main paths of this technological field are concentrated at the intermediate level of interdependence but the patents on the main paths of this technological field are not concentrated at the intermediate level of technological complexity. Additionally, in the technological field’s early stage, the interdependence values of patents that are locked-in within technological trajectories are high, whereas the same values of the later stage are low. This observation is also consistent with the idea of technological trajectories. These results suggest that the NK model is a useful tool to understand the formation of technological trajectories.