System dynamics simulation of transport mode choice transitions under structural and parametric uncertainty

IF 5.1 3区工程技术 Q1 TRANSPORTATION

European Transport Research Review Pub Date : 2022-09-09 DOI:10.1186/s12544-022-00564-z

Wiman, Henri, Tuominen, Anu, Mesimäki, Johannes, Penttinen, Merja, Innamaa, Satu, Ylén, Peter

{"title":"System dynamics simulation of transport mode choice transitions under structural and parametric uncertainty","authors":"Wiman, Henri, Tuominen, Anu, Mesimäki, Johannes, Penttinen, Merja, Innamaa, Satu, Ylén, Peter","doi":"10.1186/s12544-022-00564-z","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Complex social processes introduce difficulties to validating causal parameters and identifying the correct system structure in modelling. Policy impact assessment for sustainability transitions should therefore not expend too many resources modelling any single set of assumptions about the world. Furthermore, keeping models relatively simple allows more effective communication and stakeholder collaboration. This paper presents an exploratory system dynamics model of urban mode choice. We demonstrate that, despite structural and parametric uncertainty, it is possible to rank alternative policy approaches and identify high-leverage uncertainties as targets of policy action or further analysis. We also show how different narrative theories of change can have drastically different or unintuitive outcomes for the same intervention. Simulation can benefit both impact assessment and the further scrutiny and refinement of change narratives. We argue that the following methodological choices and their synergies made our modelling approach effective: exploratory modelling, focus on endogeneity, coarse resolution and avoidance of abstract variables.","PeriodicalId":12079,"journal":{"name":"European Transport Research Review","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.1000,"publicationDate":"2022-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Transport Research Review","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-022-00564-z","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"TRANSPORTATION","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 2

Abstract

Complex social processes introduce difficulties to validating causal parameters and identifying the correct system structure in modelling. Policy impact assessment for sustainability transitions should therefore not expend too many resources modelling any single set of assumptions about the world. Furthermore, keeping models relatively simple allows more effective communication and stakeholder collaboration. This paper presents an exploratory system dynamics model of urban mode choice. We demonstrate that, despite structural and parametric uncertainty, it is possible to rank alternative policy approaches and identify high-leverage uncertainties as targets of policy action or further analysis. We also show how different narrative theories of change can have drastically different or unintuitive outcomes for the same intervention. Simulation can benefit both impact assessment and the further scrutiny and refinement of change narratives. We argue that the following methodological choices and their synergies made our modelling approach effective: exploratory modelling, focus on endogeneity, coarse resolution and avoidance of abstract variables.

查看原文本刊更多论文

结构和参数不确定性下运输方式选择转变的系统动力学仿真

复杂的社会过程给验证因果参数和识别正确的系统结构建模带来了困难。因此，对可持续性转型的政策影响评估不应花费太多资源来模拟任何一套关于世界的假设。此外，保持模型相对简单允许更有效的沟通和涉众协作。本文提出了一个探索性的城市模式选择系统动力学模型。我们证明，尽管存在结构和参数上的不确定性，但仍有可能对可供选择的政策方法进行排名，并将高杠杆不确定性确定为政策行动或进一步分析的目标。我们还展示了不同的变化叙事理论如何对相同的干预产生截然不同或不直观的结果。模拟可以对影响评估和变更叙述的进一步审查和细化都有好处。我们认为，以下方法选择及其协同作用使我们的建模方法有效:探索性建模，关注内生性，粗分辨率和避免抽象变量。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

European Transport Research Review Engineering-Mechanical Engineering

CiteScore

8.60

自引率

4.70%

发文量

审稿时长

13 weeks

期刊介绍： European Transport Research Review (ETRR) is a peer-reviewed open access journal publishing original high-quality scholarly research and developments in areas related to transportation science, technologies, policy and practice. Established in 2008 by the European Conference of Transport Research Institutes (ECTRI), the Journal provides researchers and practitioners around the world with an authoritative forum for the dissemination and critical discussion of new ideas and methodologies that originate in, or are of special interest to, the European transport research community. The journal is unique in its field, as it covers all modes of transport and addresses both the engineering and the social science perspective, offering a truly multidisciplinary platform for researchers, practitioners, engineers and policymakers. ETRR is aimed at a readership including researchers, practitioners in the design and operation of transportation systems, and policymakers at the international, national, regional and local levels.