Dynamics of food demand during political instability: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

This study assesses the impact of two revolutions—the Tulip Revolution in 2005 and the Melon Revolution in 2010—on household food demand in Kyrgyzstan. Different categories within food products witnessed distinct adjustments in consumer demand. Employing a complete demand system and seemingly unrelated regressions with nationally representative panel data, we find that household food demand fluctuates based on pre-conflict expectations. Despite declining total food expenditure during the first revolution and increasing in the second, the expenditure shares for staples and luxuries display heterogeneous trajectories. Food preferences shifted toward luxuries during the first revolution and staples during the second. Our findings underscore the necessity of a disaggregated perspective in understanding conflict-induced shocks on food demand.