Temporal analysis of mortality from preventable causes in the first 24 hours of life, 2000-2021.

IF 1.5 4区医学 Q3 NURSING

Revista Latino-Americana De Enfermagem Pub Date : 2023-12-04 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1590/1518-8345.6696.4079

Aline Beatriz Dos Santos Silva, Luciana Scarlazzari Costa, Paulo Germano de Frias, Ana Catarina de Melo Araújo, Cristine Vieira do Bonfim

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Abstract

Objective: to analyze the temporal pattern and estimate mortality rates in the first 24 hours of life and from preventable causes in the state of Pernambuco from 2000 to 2021.

Method: an ecological study, using the quarter as the unit of analysis. The data source was made up of the Mortality Information System and the Live Birth Information System. The time series modeling was conducted according to the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model.

Results: 14,462 deaths were recorded in the first 24 hours of life, 11,110 (76.8%) of which being preventable. It is observed from the forecasts that the mortality rate in the first 24 hours of life ranged from 3.3 to 2.4 per 1,000 live births, and the mortality rate from preventable causes ranged from 2.3 to 1.8 per 1,000 live births.

Conclusion: the prediction suggested progress in reducing mortality in the first 24 hours of life in the state and from preventable causes. The ARIMA models presented satisfactory estimates for mortality rates and preventable causes in the first 24 hours of life.

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2000-2021年生命最初24小时内可预防原因导致的死亡率的时间分析。

目的:分析2000年至2021年伯南布哥州生命最初24小时内和可预防原因造成的死亡率，并估计死亡率。方法:生态研究，以季度为分析单位。数据来源由死亡率信息系统和活产信息系统组成。采用自回归综合移动平均模型进行时间序列建模。结果:14,462例死亡发生在生命最初24小时内，其中11,110例(76.8%)是可以预防的。从预测中可以看出，出生后24小时内的死亡率为每1 000例活产死亡3.3人至2.4人，可预防原因造成的死亡率为每1 000例活产死亡2.3人至1.8人。结论:该预测表明，在降低生命最初24小时死亡率和可预防原因方面取得了进展。ARIMA模型对生命最初24小时内的死亡率和可预防原因作出了令人满意的估计。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Revista Latino-Americana De Enfermagem NURSING-

自引率

11.10%

发文量

142

期刊介绍： A Revista Latino-Americana de Enfermagem constitui-se no órgão oficial de divulgação científica da Escola de Enfermagem de Ribeirão Preto da Universidade de São Paulo e do Centro Colaborador da OMS para o Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa em Enfermagem. Foi criada em abril de 1992 sendo sua primeira edição publicada em janeiro de 1993. No período de 1993 a 1997 tinha periodicidade semestral, de 1997 a 2000 trimestral e, a partir de janeiro de 2001, tem periodicidade bimestral. Caracteriza-se como periódico de circulação internacional, abrangendo predominantemente os países da América Latina e Caribe, embora seja também divulgado para assinantes dos Estados Unidos, Portugal e Espanha.